Stoopid Stuff

Upon Further Review

You know, something's just not right here. I mean, it smells more than a little fishy. Think about it. Back in early 2003, the right wing conservatives had it all. They had the power, in the President and an unusually powerful Vice President. They controlled both houses of congress, by significant margins. They were well on their way to controlling the supreme court. Their influencers, the Neo-Cons and the K Street Lobbyists, had unfettered access and unprecedented control. In the post 9/11 world, they could do anything they wanted, and the opposition party could do nothing but quietly acquiesce, out of fear of being labeled as unamerican.

Here we are, just four years later. The Neo-Cons are utterly discredited. The President has an approval rating in the low 30% range. The 2006 midterms were a disaster for the conservatives, a shutout in the congressional races. All of it due to the unmitigated disaster that is the Iraq occupation.

I look at this situation and it makes me wonder. They have given up so much power, so much prestige, so much hard-won political capital, and still they fight to continue, indeed to expand, the Iraq quagmire. Why? Why don't they simply make a simple calculation, declare victory and get out of Iraq? Instead they seem willing to give up anything, even everything in order to just keep America bleeding in the Arabian desert. Again, why? What do they hope to gain?

This only makes sense if they are actually achieving what they wanted to achieve. If this situation somehow represents the original goal - not so much in detail, but in broad strokes. Think about it like this. If the entire goal was nothing more than to ensure a permanent American Military presence on the oil fields, then perhaps the worst possible outcome for them would be a peaceful and stable Iraq that would no longer require the American military. Wouldn't the American people, at that point, demand our troops come home? But a permanent state of conflict, the region in a certain amount of turmoil, threats of expanding conflict and shifting alliances - these are conditions that will require the American military to stand between the current chaos and some horrific conflagration.

So if this is an ugly, messy outcome, they still get what they want - Multiple division strength US military presence in the gulf from which to explicitly threaten Iran and implicitly threaten Saudi, and of course, with which to protect America's spoiled, juvenile delinquent child, Israel. If you think about it, it makes almost perfect sense. If you accept this worldview, there's still one nagging, terrifying question.

If the Neo-Cons are willing to give up so much in order to keep American troops in the region, how does this plan deal with the 2008 presidential elections? Sure, when they started this they were clapping each other on the back, celebrating what they believed to be their "permanent majority". But now, after the disastrous (for them) 2006 midterms, why aren't they doing something to appease the vast majority of America's displeasure with the status quo? There are, perhaps, four options, none of them pretty:

1. They don't intend to allow the 2008 elections to go forward. This is a whole debate in and of itself, and I don't believe the professional US military would allow a coup d'etat like that, but it is not inconceivable that they are at least thinking about this.
2. They expand the war into Iran and by the time of the '08 elections, they are completely discredited and run out of office, but with the region going up in flames, America has no choice but to stay and at least try to keep the oil flowing.
3. Before the elections, the Bush administration negotiates a treaty with Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan to base troops in Kuwait and Jordan to offset the growing Shiite expansionism. The new Democratic administration would be faced with either living with or abrogating this treaty.
4. It is possible that I overestimate their commitment. Perhaps Bush simply doesn't care what happens when he leaves office, and will hand over the keys and walk away.

While it's hard to see the plan going forward, to look at the situation in this light certainly offers at least a small explanation for their otherwise inexplicable behavior. Or maybe, once again, I'm simply overanalyzing them again.

posted by mikey @ 2:35 PM